The demographic explosion

8 billion people in 2020
At the beginning of this century, our planet will contain six billion inhabitants. According to United Nations projections, that number will grow to 8 billion in 2020 and 10 billion in 2035.

If famine is to be avoided, the increase in the population will inevitably require an increase in agricultural production. However, the arable land area has probably attained its maximum if we are to avoid placing crops in fragile zones where productivity is low.

Additionally, land area available for agriculture will decrease in many regions because of urbanization and industrialization. The only solution, therefore, will be to increase production per unit of land area.

The increase of agricultural production
This increase will depend on political, economic, and technical conditions, all of which are very important to, and interdependent upon, one another. This will make the situation very complex.

Technical factors will include, among other things, good soil stewardship; sensible but adequate use of fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides; updated agricultural production techniques; and improved varieties adapted to the environment.

The utilization of improved varieties is one of the most important of these factors, recognized as having been responsible for 50% of the increase in productivity of the major agricultural crops during the last 30 years.